Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.460344 0.536307 0.620542 0.720831 0.836948 0.967137 1.124167
2025-02-16 0.334885 0.436175 0.561100 0.726305 0.938891 1.203131 1.556509
2025-02-23 0.265359 0.374287 0.519208 0.725708 1.012050 1.394801 1.945190
2025-03-02 0.217492 0.327442 0.483061 0.718710 1.065927 1.558189 2.308817
2025-03-09 0.184604 0.294106 0.457625 0.718606 1.123821 1.728148 2.697267
2025-03-16 0.153529 0.257442 0.420310 0.692878 1.136495 1.828858 2.990436
2025-03-23 0.143454 0.251826 0.429194 0.738864 1.264466 2.118615 3.610243
2025-03-30 0.123072 0.225667 0.400622 0.718593 1.280156 2.228264 3.947825
2025-04-06 0.105658 0.201857 0.372373 0.694198 1.284153 2.316471 4.256248
2025-04-13 0.091489 0.181720 0.347620 0.672099 1.288216 2.403256 4.569460
2025-04-20 0.083204 0.171401 0.339211 0.678564 1.344435 2.587981 5.079991
2025-04-27 0.079440 0.169339 0.345965 0.714469 1.460073 2.893941 5.851688
2025-05-04 0.073776 0.162863 0.343722 0.733274 1.546502 3.157771 6.580683
2025-05-11 0.067673 0.154633 0.336971 0.742223 1.614643 3.394563 7.286456
2025-05-18 0.061489 0.145276 0.326534 0.741784 1.662644 3.595169 7.939781
2025-05-25 0.055518 0.135499 0.313853 0.734643 1.695003 3.766223 8.549428
2025-06-01 0.050780 0.127878 0.304900 0.734537 1.742557 3.974308 9.262751
2025-06-08 0.044816 0.116430 0.285706 0.708251 1.727167 4.042384 9.670311
2025-06-15 0.044104 0.117867 0.296874 0.755235 1.888267 4.523926 11.080092
2025-06-22 0.039461 0.108609 0.281075 0.734524 1.884630 4.625896 11.609403
2025-06-29 0.035124 0.099509 0.264472 0.709599 1.867425 4.693605 12.063447
2025-07-06 0.031392 0.091486 0.249555 0.687020 1.853239 4.766699 12.538677
2025-07-13 0.029386 0.087963 0.245910 0.693625 1.915162 5.034243 13.534585